Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets

This paper employs the Tail Event NETwork (TENET) to identify financial markets with greater potential risk, and simultaneously investigate the interdependence between them. We find strong time-varying connectedness across 23 emerging markets during the main crisis episodes, including the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, using data from January 1995 to May 2021. The network analysis revealed that emerging European markets are top risk transmitters, whereas emerging Asian markets are top risk receivers. China showed disconnection from the network, reflecting its diversification potential for investors. Our findings offer several policy and regulatory implications. • We investigated the tail-event network dependence of 23 emerging markets;• Tail-Event NETwork (TENET) technique has been employed;• We show that European emerging markets are top risk transmitters, while Asian economies are top risk receivers;• Chinese market is decoupled from the rest of markets analysed. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Emerging Markets Review is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19

Documenting the interlinkages among assets that are widely used to hedge against inflation is crucial for investors, as the necessity to protect the investment portfolio is stronger under inflationary conditions. For this purpose, we investigate the volatility spillovers between treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and a battery of other assets perceived as inflation hedges, including bonds, gold, real estate, oil and equities. The applied methodology comprehends the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28:57–66, 2012, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006) approach for the period 1/1/2010–3/31/2022. Our results indicate that the assets under consideration are moderately interconnected and subjected to several exogenous shocks, such as the US–China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Furthermore, we assess the hedging effectiveness of TIPS against each asset by estimating hedge ratios and optimal portfolios weights, before and after the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, by using conditional variance estimations (DCC-GARCH). The empirical findings show that the short position in the volatility of TIPS is proved to be an excellent hedge for all the sampled assets, with the exception of short-term Treasury bonds, and their hedging ability was improved during COVID-19.

Energy cryptocurrencies: Assessing connectedness with other asset classes

We investigate connectedness between energy cryptocurrencies and common asset classes, including oil, using TVP-VAR modeling, evidencing that energy cryptocurrencies, as diversifiers, normally have strong connections with bitcoin and nothing else. However, their connectedness to other assets changes rapidly during shocks such as COVID-19 and the start of the Russian-Ukraine war. Connectedness spiked in April 2020, when WTI oil prices fell to negative pricing. Economic policy uncertainty, Twitter-based uncertainty, and infectious disease-related uncertainty all have significant impact on the system's total connectedness. Energy cryptocurrencies, while normally diversifiers, are highly sensitive to shocks and changes in uncertainty.

Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management

This study empirically investigates and contributes new evidence to the ongoing topic of potential volatility spillover, efficient portfolio management, and hedging strategies. We investigate the connectedness between the travel and leisure sector (which was negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic) and healthcare, technology, and telecommunications sectors (which were positively impacted by the pandemic). We selected these four service sectors because they have been impacted by the pandemic and are also crucial for the world's economy. We separately perform a connectedness analysis for four regions: Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, and North America. The main findings indicate a rise in return and volatility spillovers during the COVID-19 outbreak in the selected sectors. Healthcare, telecommunications, and technology sectors are major transmitters of volatility shocks to the travel and leisure sector during the crisis. The portfolio analysis shows that investors should include healthcare, telecommunications, and technology sectors in their equity portfolios to reduce investment risk and protect expected returns during the pandemic. Hedge ratios vary over crisis and non-crisis periods, highlighting the option of adjusting hedging strategies during turbulent and stable periods. The study also evaluates efficient portfolio management strategies shaped during the COVID-19 pandemic using the estimated results of the DCC-GARCH approach. © 2023

Asymmetric efficiency and connectedness among green stocks, halal tourism stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities: Portfolio hedging implications

This study examines asymmetric efficiency and connectedness among halal tourism stocks, green stocks, cryptocurrency, gold, and oil using data covering the period from 2018M12–2022M09. Employing asymmetric multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, this study finds gold to be the most efficient asset and halal tourism stocks to be more efficient than green stocks. The asymmetric connectedness approach identifies green stocks as net transmitters of return shocks in all market conditions and halal tourism stocks (oil) as net receivers of return shocks in normal and upward (downward) market conditions. The connectedness among the assets increases during major economic events such as COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war. Portfolio analysis suggests that the minimum connectedness portfolio outperforms all the other methods and shows halal tourism and green stocks offer significant hedging effectiveness. Our findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers seeking to diversify portfolios, manage risks, and regulate information in periods of financial turmoil and asymmetric market conditions. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

MENA stock markets' sustained financial connectivity: evidence from pre- vs. during Covid-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound financial turbulences in developing and developed stock markets alike. The aim of this paper is to investigate the recent changes in the level of financial integration across equity market indices in a selected sample of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, as compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. For this aim, this paper utilises dataset from 2016 to 2018 as a proxy for the pre-Covide19 era, and from 2019 to the end of 2021 for 'during-COVID-19' period. This paper employs the Johansen-Juselius approach for cointegration, alongside with Granger Causality techniques, and Variance Decomposition (V.D). The main results of the cointegration test reveal that the financial integration of MENA stock markets has increased in the pandemic period as compared to before due to an increased number of cointegration vectors. Copyright © 2022 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Impact of global macroeconomic factors on spillovers among Australian sector markets: Fresh findings from a wavelet-based analysis

This study investigates the spillover dynamics among 10 Australian sectoral indices and their connectedness to global factors, including the WTI crude oil price, oil market volatility, Australian exchange rate, U.S. stock market volatility index and Infectious Disease Tracker Index. Using data from May 14, 2007 to March 31, 2022, this study applies the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to study their static and dynamic connectedness, wavelet coherence analysis to investigate the time-frequency co-movement of global macroeconomic factors with Australian sector stock indices and wavelet decomposition-based Granger causality. The results show that aggressive stocks (Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Financials) are net transmitters, while defensive stocks (Health, Information Technology, Communication and Utilities) are net receivers of spillovers. The coronavirus pandemic has increased systemic risk, causing radical changes in net connectedness. Additionally, global macroeconomic factors drive the connectedness of the Australian sectoral indices, with oil and exchange rates moving in phase, and oil volatility, stock volatility and the Infectious Disease Tracker Index moving in antiphase. Global stock and oil market volatility has a significant impact on the Australian sector's returns over short-, medium- and long-term horizons. This study provides valuable insights to investors and policymakers by carefully examining the relationships between global factors and Australian sectoral indices. © 2023 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

COVID-19 Cryptocurrency Investment: Wealth Disparities and Portfolio Diversification.

The introduction of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology has provided many investors the option to engage in the market, diversify their portfolios, and accumulate wealth. The high return on cryptocurrency during the pandemic has served as an incentive for all ethnic groups to participate in the market. Cryptocurrency is perceived as a hedging instrument for wealth prospects across races during COVID-19. Considering the return on investment, to what extent is blockchain a good hedging instrument for minority investors? Using weekly trade price data from Yahoo Finance, market valuations from coinranking.com, and asset/equity variables from the Federal Reserve Bank, this paper examines investment strategies of different racial/ethnic groups in cryptocurrency during the pandemic in a panel data model from 2019 to 2021. Should investors use public coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as part of their investment portfolio mix during the pandemic? We find that an increase in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies during the pandemic may repress the investment strategy for marginalized groups.

Fund ESG performance and downside risk: Evidence from China

Whether responsible investing reduces portfolio risk remains open to discussion. We study the relationship between ESG performance and downside risk at fund level in the Chinese equity mutual fund market. We find that fund ESG performance is positively associated with fund downside risk during the period between July 2018 and March 2021, and that the positive relationship weakens during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose three channels through which fund ESG performance could affect fund downside risk: (i) the firm channel in which the risk-mitigation effect of portfolio firms' good ESG practices could be manifested at fund level, (ii) the diversification channel in which the portfolio concentration of high ESG-rated funds could amplify fund downside risk, and (iii) the flow channel in which funds' better ESG performance may attract greater investor flows that could reduce fund downside risk. We show evidence that the observed time-varying relationship between fund ESG performance and downside risk is driven by the relative force of the three channels. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

Analysis of the emergence and initial performance of REITs in India

Purpose: In 2014, real estate investment trust (REIT) emerged as a new alternative investment option in India. This research aims to give an empirical authentication of the Indian REITs performance from April 2019 to July 2022 across a range of investment variables. Design/methodology/approach: Using monthly total returns in Indian Rupee, risk-adjusted Indian REIT performance and investment portfolio characteristics are examined. Indian REITs' potential in a diversified multi-asset portfolio is analysed using the mean-variance analysis, asset allocation diagram and efficient frontier. Findings: During April 2019–July 2022, Indian REITs provided a lower return than stocks but outperformed bonds despite coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns, which hurt the traditional working from office concept. The study also examined REIT allocation to an Indian mixed-asset portfolio and the benefits of a diversified portfolio. Practical implications: Indian REITs provide a liquid, transparent alternative to direct property for investors seeking exposure to Indian real estate markets. Indian REITs gave real estate companies an extra funding source and investors an alternate asset. This paper explores Indian REITs' potential opportunities, given that domestic and foreign investors' demand for transparent property investment in India. The analysis found a positive early performance despite a challenging environment. Originality/value: This paper offers the first empirical performance validation of Indian REITs as a way to obtain exposure to commercial property in India and the REITs' role in a diversified asset portfolio. The authors' study improves investors' decision-making abilities by providing empirically validated, valuable and practicable property investing insights. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Time and Frequency Connectedness Among Emerging Markets and QGREEN, FinTech and Artificial Intelligence-Based Index: Lessons from the Outbreak of COVID-19

The study is about contributing to the ongoing discussion on the diversification opportunities for emerging markets with non-conventional asset class. The limited literature in the era of fourth industrial revolution motivates us to gauge diversification opportunities. This study is focusing on identifying diversification opportunities with a set of unique asset classes that are the proxies for Green Funds, FinTech and Artificial Intelligence-based index funds. The method and model applied in the study are time and frequency connectedness in a Wavelet Coherence, and for the robustness check—Network analysis has been applied. The originality of the study lies in identifying the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19. The results captured that FinTech-based asset was the most resilient asset class during the pre- and post-outbreak of COVID-19, followed by AI-based fund and finally by Green fund. Henceforth, FinTech provides superior diversification opportunities among all with MSCI Emerging Market. AI and Green funds are captured to be invested in the long term for diversification, whereas FinTech is suitable for both long- and short-term assets. The results are relevant for investors in emerging markets and for policymakers as well. © 2023 MDI.

Quantile-based spillover connectedness among stochastic volatilities of ESG equities, Islamic and conventional stocks with implications for portfolio management

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the relationship between stock markets, environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and Shariah-compliant in an integrated framework. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ the multivariate factor stochastic volatility (mvFSV) framework to extract the volatility of the different sectoral indices. Based on this evidence, the authors employ the quantile vector autoregressive (QVAR) approach to examine the dynamic spillover connectedness among the aforementioned indices. Findings: The study emphasizes the following major findings: (1) significant time-varying spillover connectedness across quantiles, (2) bidirectional and asymmetric spillover effect among the ESG index and the other sectoral indices, (3) the strength of spillover connectedness is time-varying across quantiles, (4) based on the perspective of portfolio optimization, ESG market is a significant strong forecasting contributor to conventional and Shariah-compliant markets, (5) overall, the findings point out serious quantile pass-through effect among ESG index and the other sectoral indices during the COVID-19 health crisis. Originality/value: This study extends the previous literature in the following ways. First, to the best of the researchers' knowledge, none of the existing studies have investigated the relationship between stock markets, ESG factors and Shariah-compliant in an integrated framework. Second, this study extends the previous scholarships by applying the mvFSV. Third, the authors propose a new rolling version to estimate dynamic spillovers, namely the rolling-window quantile VAR method. This approach provides a great advantage in computing the dynamics of return and variance spillover between variables in terms not only of the overall factor but also of the net (pairwise) aspect. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Asymmetric relationship between green bonds and Sukuk markets: The role of global risk factors

This study investigates the asymmetric connectedness and spillover effects between two ethical fixed-income assets (Sukuk and green bonds) with regard to global risk factors using a sample of 15 Sukuk markets and green bond indices. This complex network allows us to examine the extreme risk spillover and interlinkages across green bonds and Sukuk under different market conditions, captures sudden upward changes in the total and net spillover indices and hence, serves as an alerting system for any impending crisis in relation to global risk factors. Empirical results indicate a persistency feature in the connectedness between Hong Kong and Malaysian, and UK and Nigerian Sukuk markets under different market conditions. More importantly, Sukuk and green bond markets are not largely affected by global risk factors in the middle, upper and lower quantiles. Findings from the portfolio analysis show that Sukuk is effective in hedging the risks of green bonds and global factors. These results of potential diversification characteristics and risk reduction benefits are robust and hold during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Finally, our findings are of paramount importance for investors who are interested in ethical investments as well as policymakers in order to maintain a stable and sound financial system. © 2022 The Author(s)

Oil price and the automobile industry: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio implications with downside risk

The paper examines the interactions of downside risks between crude oil and the automobile sector through the employment of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Diebold and Yılmaz (2014) framework in a static and time-varying perspective. The network connectedness is found to intensify during the periods of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21). Crude oil remains a net receiver of downside risks along with the automobile firms such as FAW and SAIC while Daimler, BMW, and Renault are the prominent transmitters of downside risk in the network. Further, we find that the net pairwise spillover of downside risk of oil on automobile stocks is time-variant. The risk diversification strategies using optimal portfolios that minimise VaR95, CVaR95, and maximise quadratic utility gains are constructed with oil futures contracts and evaluated for their hedging efficiency and net utility gains. The overall hedging efficiency and net utility gains are highest during the Global Financial crisis period, followed by COVID-19, the post-crisis, and the pre-crisis periods. The findings hold significance for investors, fund managers, and policymakers.

Analysis of the emergence and initial performance of REITs in India

Purpose: In 2014, real estate investment trust (REIT) emerged as a new alternative investment option in India. This research aims to give an empirical authentication of the Indian REITs performance from April 2019 to July 2022 across a range of investment variables. Design/methodology/approach: Using monthly total returns in Indian Rupee, risk-adjusted Indian REIT performance and investment portfolio characteristics are examined. Indian REITs' potential in a diversified multi-asset portfolio is analysed using the mean-variance analysis, asset allocation diagram and efficient frontier. Findings: During April 2019–July 2022, Indian REITs provided a lower return than stocks but outperformed bonds despite coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdowns, which hurt the traditional working from office concept. The study also examined REIT allocation to an Indian mixed-asset portfolio and the benefits of a diversified portfolio. Practical implications: Indian REITs provide a liquid, transparent alternative to direct property for investors seeking exposure to Indian real estate markets. Indian REITs gave real estate companies an extra funding source and investors an alternate asset. This paper explores Indian REITs' potential opportunities, given that domestic and foreign investors' demand for transparent property investment in India. The analysis found a positive early performance despite a challenging environment. Originality/value: This paper offers the first empirical performance validation of Indian REITs as a way to obtain exposure to commercial property in India and the REITs' role in a diversified asset portfolio. The authors' study improves investors' decision-making abilities by providing empirically validated, valuable and practicable property investing insights. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Volatility contagion (spillover) between Chinese and Pakistani stock markets during COVID-19: pre and post analysis of trade-level data

This research study examines volatility contagion (spillover) before and during the COVID period from the Chinese stock market (Shanghai stock market) to the Pakistani stock market (Karachi stock market). We used aggregate market datasets and various industry datasets (11 industries according to GICS classification), employed the EGARCH model to investigate the volatility spillover. Our results indicate that volatility demonstrates different characteristics in aggregate data samples as compared to industrial data samples. Moreover, this study finds return spillover and volatility spillover in both datasets (aggregate and industries). This study suggests that stakeholders should analyse both datasets (aggregate and industry) before taking investment decisions. Copyright © 2022 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

The extreme return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds and their determinants and consequences for investors

This study aimed to investigate the return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds at the middle, left and right tail using the new quantile-based connectivity methodology from Ando et al. (2018). We find that the average level of connectedness estimated at the mean/median is lower than that estimated at the left and right quantiles. Therefore, return connectedness between Sukuk and green links is higher in the left and right tails, indicating that the application of the mean-based connectivity measure is inappropriate. Next, we show that the connectedness of returns varies over time but varies less in the tails. In particular, the dynamic connectivity analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the Sukuk and green bond markets. The Return connectedness driver's analysis shows the importance of macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the middle and lower quintiles. The US dollar bodes well positively for both bears and bulls, while uncertainty in equity markets amplifies return spillovers in the lower quintile. Moreover, the weak return spillovers between Sukuk and green bonds indicates that there is indeed an opportunity for optimal asset allocation. The highest hedging efficiency can be achieved by taking short positions in US Green Bonds.

Fund ESG performance and downside risk: Evidence from China

Whether responsible investing reduces portfolio risk remains open to discussion. We study the relationship between ESG performance and downside risk at fund level in the Chinese equity mutual fund market. We find that fund ESG performance is positively associated with fund downside risk during the period between July 2018 and March 2021, and that the positive relationship weakens during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose three channels through which fund ESG performance could affect fund downside risk: (i) the firm channel in which the risk-mitigation effect of portfolio firms' good ESG practices could be manifested at fund level, (ii) the diversification channel in which the portfolio concentration of high ESG-rated funds could amplify fund downside risk, and (iii) the flow channel in which funds' better ESG performance may attract greater investor flows that could reduce fund downside risk. We show evidence that the observed time-varying relationship between fund ESG performance and downside risk is driven by the relative force of the three channels.

Asymmetric relationship between green bonds and Sukuk markets: The role of global risk factors

This study investigates the asymmetric connectedness and spillover effects between two ethical fixed-income assets (Sukuk and green bonds) with regard to global risk factors using a sample of 15 Sukuk markets and green bond indices. This complex network allows us to examine the extreme risk spillover and interlinkages across green bonds and Sukuk under different market conditions, captures sudden upward changes in the total and net spillover indices and hence, serves as an alerting system for any impending crisis in relation to global risk factors. Empirical results indicate a persistency feature in the connectedness between Hong Kong and Malaysian, and UK and Nigerian Sukuk markets under different market conditions. More importantly, Sukuk and green bond markets are not largely affected by global risk factors in the middle, upper and lower quantiles. Findings from the portfolio analysis show that Sukuk is effective in hedging the risks of green bonds and global factors. These results of potential diversification characteristics and risk reduction benefits are robust and hold during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Finally, our findings are of paramount importance for investors who are interested in ethical investments as well as policymakers in order to maintain a stable and sound financial system.

Sovereign public sector property fund: Building a conceptual framework

The public sector is the largest UK landowner and space occupier with local authorities owning and managing the majority of the real estate assets to meet services to the community. As central funding of these services reduce and the knowledge economy is changing the way we live, local governments are looking at more efficient and effective ways of managing their real estate operations and creating investment value to bridge the gap between funding shortfalls and the demand for public services. Several local authorities are now investing in commercial properties as a way to generate long term stable income streams although current practices are highlighting narrow portfolio diversification, management challenges, fee leakage and limited awareness of the knowledge economy on future real estate returns. This research paper examines the issues and provides a conceptual framework for a Sovereign Public Sector Property Fund which can create local level opportunities alongside a stable long term income stream. This can be achieved through a pooling of prime local government real estate assets to offer portfolio diversification with quality management, good governance, local authority appointed steering committee members and exposure to opportunities to benefit from aspects of the knowledge economy. Supported by central government, individual real estate assets in a Sovereign Public Sector Property Fund can provide a local destination with placemaking potential in the post COVID-19 era. Strengthening the connection between people and place, the real estate in the fund can be the catalyst for local employment opportunities and support surrounding communities. This exploratory study covers an important part of the UK economy and offers a valuable insight into creating a new real estate investment vehicle which can elevate the often underutilised prime local authority real estate assets.